Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS

How the ranking is calculated

Each match receives two separate ranks: one for Over 2.5 Goals and one for Both Teams to Score (BTTS). The two ranks are built from the same idea: estimate how open the game should be by combining expected goals, scoring form and defensive vulnerability for both teams.

• Attack strength is based on season xG plus short-term scoring form (recent goals and chances created) for both teams.
• Defensive vulnerability is based on recent goals conceded, shots on target conceded and the opponent’s ability to create chances.
• Openness multiplier increases the score when both teams have high BTTS rate or regularly score in both halves which signals a higher-tempo game state.
• Expected total goals is derived by combining the home team attack with away team defense and the away team attack with home team defense. The higher the expected total, the stronger the Over 2.5 case.
• BTTS likelihood is driven by the probability that both teams reach at least one goal, boosted when both have consistent scoring trends.

Final output: two ranks per fixture (Over 2.5 rank, BTTS rank) plus corresponding odds. If the data quality is low (missing xG or small sample), the match is flagged and placed lower by default.